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Systems vs indexes & funds

Put the same money into a system, a bank deposit, a stock index, a fund, bonds, gold or Bitcoin over the same years. See what each would have returned, how deep it fell on the way, and what can go wrong.

Not the same kind of number. Systems are hypothetical backtests. Indexes, funds, gold and Bitcoin are real market history. A backtest is usually better than what happens live, so read system rows with extra caution.

Choose what to compare

SignalForge systems (backtest)
Indexes, funds & others (real history)

What your money would have become

ChoiceFinal balanceProfitYour return / yrBiggest dip on the way

Monthly additions go in on the first week of every month. No taxes, fees for buying/selling, or broker costs beyond what each source already includes.

Balance over time

How far below its peak (drawdown)

The drop you would have had to sit through at each point in time. Deeper and longer dips are harder to hold through in real life.

Risk and return side by side

Same period, lump sum only, so each choice is measured on its own.

ChoiceReturn / yrAfter inflationDeepest dropSwings / yrWorst yearWorst 12 monthsLongest below peakUp yearsReturn ÷ DD
  • Deepest drop: the largest fall from a high to a later low (weekly closes).
  • Swings / yr: annualised volatility of weekly returns. Higher means a bumpier ride.
  • Longest below peak: the longest wait before a new high.

If you hold for… what are the odds?

Every possible start week in each choice's full history, held for the chosen time. This answers "if I had started at an unlucky moment, what then?"

ChoiceChance of a lossWorst / yrTypical / yrBest / yrRangeStarts tested

Year by year

Calendar-year returns in the chosen currency. The current year is year-to-date.

How they differ, and what can go wrong

Bank depositBondsStock funds / indexesGoldBitcoinSignalForge systems
Where the return comes fromInterestInterest + priceCompany profits, dividendsPrice onlyPrice onlyTrading gains on price moves
Principal guaranteedUp to 1M THB per bank [6]NoNoNoNoNo
LeverageNoNoNoNo (ETF/physical)OptionalYes (CFD/forex margin)
Can you lose more than you put in?NoNoNoNoOnly with leveragePossible without negative balance protection
EffortNoneLowLowLowLowBot setup or manual trading
Numbers on this pageReal ratesReal historyReal historyReal historyReal historyBacktest

SignalForge trading systems

5/5

Forex, gold and CFD trades in your own broker account, by bot or by hand from signals

Data used here
Hypothetical backtests (not real trading), except the Myfxbook page
Protection
No deposit insurance. Money sits with the broker, so safety depends on the broker and whoever regulates it
Main risks
  • Leverage: losses can be fast and, without negative balance protection, larger than the deposit
  • The EU regulator found 74–89% of retail CFD accounts lose money [7]
  • A backtest can look better than the future: markets change, costs and slippage differ
  • Technology: bot, VPS, internet or broker outages
  • Thailand: the BOT and SEC warn about unlicensed forex and offshore providers [8][9]

Thai bank deposit

1/5

Baht deposits that earn the bank's posted interest rate

Data used here
Thailand's average deposit rate per year (IMF via World Bank) [2], compounded weekly
Protection
The Deposit Protection Agency covers up to 1 million baht per depositor per bank [6]
Main risks
  • Main risk is inflation: in some years the rate was below inflation, so buying power fell (see the real return column)
  • Amounts above the protection limit are not covered if a bank fails [6]
  • Fixed deposits withdrawn early may earn less interest

Bonds

2/5

Lending to governments or companies for interest. AGG (US investment-grade bonds) stands in for the market

Data used here
ETF prices with distributions reinvested, Yahoo Finance [1]
Protection
No principal guarantee; prices move
Main risks
  • When interest rates rise fast, bond prices fall (see 2022 in the year table)
  • Issuer default risk
  • For a Thai investor: USD/THB exchange-rate risk

Mutual funds / stock indexes

3/5

Owning many companies at once through a fund or ETF, earning the stock market's return

Data used here
S&P 500 total return, QQQ / ACWI / THD with dividends, Yahoo Finance [1] · typical Thai equity fund = THD with extra fees up to the 1.76% a-year average [5] · 60/40 rebalanced weekly
Protection
No principal guarantee. Thai funds are regulated by the SEC and fund assets are kept apart from the manager
Main risks
  • Stock markets can fall 30–55% and take years to recover (see deepest drop and longest time below peak)
  • Fees reduce returns every year; index figures here have no fund fees
  • Foreign funds: USD/THB exchange-rate risk

Gold

3/5

Holding gold: no interest or dividend, the return is the price alone. GLD stands in for the price

Data used here
GLD ETF prices, Yahoo Finance [1]
Protection
No principal guarantee
Main risks
  • Long flat or falling stretches are possible (see longest time below peak)
  • No income while you wait
  • Priced in USD, so USD/THB moves change the baht result

Bitcoin

5/5

A digital asset priced only by supply and demand, with no cash flow

Data used here
BTC-USD prices from Yahoo Finance since Sep 2014 [1]
Protection
No principal guarantee
Main risks
  • Has fallen more than 70% from a peak more than once (see deepest drop)
  • Exchange, custody and hacking risk
  • Short history compared with the other choices

Risk level 1–5 is SignalForge's plain-language summary of the deepest drops in the data above plus leverage and protection; it is not an official rating.

Method and limits
  • Everything is on weekly closes. USD assets are converted to baht with the weekly USD/THB rate (and the reverse for baht assets when you pick USD).
  • Systems use their weekly backtest equity, scaled so that the deepest drop matches your choice when you scale them (same method as the return calculator).
  • The Thai deposit uses the average deposit rate of each year; the latest year without data repeats the last known rate. A real 12-month fixed deposit at your bank can differ.
  • "After inflation" uses the yearly CPI of Thailand (baht) or the US (dollars), World Bank. Years without data are left out of that adjustment.
  • Not included: taxes, fund front/back-end fees, broker spreads beyond the backtest, platform or service fees.
  • Past results do not guarantee future results. This page is information, not investment advice.

Risk disclosure · Methodology

Sources

  1. Yahoo Finance — ^SP500TR, QQQ, ACWI, THD, AGG, GLD, BTC-USD, THB=X (daily adjusted close)
  2. World Bank — Thailand deposit interest rate FR.INR.DPST (IMF IFS)
  3. World Bank — Thailand CPI inflation
  4. World Bank — US CPI inflation
  5. Thai SEC — working paper on fund fees (average TER of large-cap equity funds ~1.76%, Morningstar data Dec 2014)
  6. Bangkok Bank — deposit protection of 1 million baht per depositor per bank (DPA Act 2008, s.53)
  7. ESMA (2018) — 74–89% of retail CFD accounts lose money
  8. Bank of Thailand — warning on unlicensed FOREX (15 Oct 2021)
  9. Thai SEC — warning on unlicensed providers, including offshore ones

Accessed 2 Nov 2026.

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